China is increasingly outpacing the rest of the world when it comes to sales of electric cars. According to a recent study by industry institute CAM on sales trends in key global automotive markets, the gap between China and the USA has grown significantly. According to the study, a total of 777,000 e-cars were sold in China last year, 53% more than in the previous year. In the USA, the number of new registrations of e-cars rose by only 24% to around 194,000 units.

Sales trends for electric vehicles in selected markets in the third quarter of 2017 compared to the same period of the previous year

© CAM

"China is continuing its role as the global pacesetter of e-mobility unperturbed and with increasing momentum," said Stefan Bratzel, Head of the Center of Automotive Management, at the presentation of the study on January 19, 2018. This is less about air pollution control and more about the desire for greater independence from oil imports and the electric expertise of Chinese car manufacturers. In Germany, too, the discussion about possible driving bans for dirty diesels drove up e-car sales. Nevertheless, although almost 54,500 electric cars were sold in 2017, 117% more than in the previous year, Germany - and Europe - are still lagging behind.

This is reflected in the share of e-cars - both battery electric and hybrid cars - in registrations: In China, the market share of electric cars rose from 1.8% to 2.7% in 2017. All-electric vehicles were particularly popular (652,000 units). In Germany, the market share doubled from 0.8% to 1.6%, and more e-cars were also sold in France and the UK. In the Netherlands, there was a slump of 60% due to the expiry of subsidies for hybrids in 2016.

Norway as an outlier in Europe

Norway plays a special role: The market share of new registrations there rose from 29.1% to 39.3%. In 2017 alone, more than 62,000 new electric cars were registered, an increase of 39%. The fact that electric cars are so popular in Norway is due to financial benefits: VAT, import tax and road tax are eliminated. However, sales figures are growing much faster than the Norwegian charging infrastructure. The Electric Car Association in Oslo recently warned against buying an electric car if there is no possibility of charging it at home. A bottleneck is also looming in Germany as soon as electric cars account for 30% of vehicles on German roads: According to a study carried out by the Technical University of Munich for management consultants Oliver Wyman, €11 billion is needed to expand power lines and an intelligent software solution. This is the only way to ensure that users can charge their e-vehicles flexibly.

The diesel share of new registrations in Germany fell significantly last year to 38.8%, compared to 45.9% in 2016. According to the study, the diesel share was only 33.4% in December. Alongside alternative drive systems, petrol cars benefited from this, with their share rising to 57.7% (2016: 52.1%). Bratzel warned that the shifts and the trend towards heavy city SUVs would make it difficult for some manufacturers to achieve the EU's_{CO2 reduction targets} of 95 g_{CO2 emissions} per km by 2021.

From 2020, the industry institute CAM expects a strong increase in e-car sales on the major car markets. The current low market shares should not obscure the fact that a "massive upheaval in drive technologies" is imminent in the next 10 to 15 years. By 2020, e-cars are expected to account for 2.5 to 6% of global new registrations, by 2025 it could be 12 to 25% and by 2030 even 25 to 40%. However, this also means that the combustion engine will still have the upper hand for a long time to come, according to SoftGuide.