The electrification of the drivetrain leads to significantly lower personnel requirements. This primarily affects the supplier sector. However, the transformation to electromobility can succeed if the framework conditions are right. According to the authors of the study, politicians and companies are now required to develop strategies to overcome this challenge.

The study "Effects of vehicle electrification on employment in Germany (ELAB)" was initiated by IG Metall, BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler, Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Schaeffler, Mahle International and the German Association of the Automotive Industry.

The researchers from the Fraunhofer IAO have analyzed the impact of electromobility on employment in three scenarios. At the center is a scenario in which a quarter of vehicles are purely electrically powered by 2030, 15% are plug-in hybrids and 60% have a more efficient petrol or diesel engine. Plug-in hybrids are particularly important. Because they combine both types of drive, they have positive consequences in terms of both climate and employment policy. A prerequisite in all scenarios is that the components for hybrid and purely electric vehicles are also largely manufactured in Germany.

The study is based on data from the production facilities of the participating companies. The share of employment analyzed there represents more than half of the value chains in drive technology in Germany. According to the authors, the results are therefore highly valid.

According to the study, electrification and productivity will result in a net loss of around 75,000 jobs in drive technology in Germany - assuming that developments are likely. This already includes the fact that around 25,000 new jobs will be created for components such as batteries or power electronics. The automotive industry in Germany employs around 840,000 people, including around 210,000 in the production of powertrains.

Jörg Hofmann, First Chairman of IG Metall, commented at the presentation of the study in Frankfurt that the results were no cause for fear-mongering. "The challenge is great, but it can be overcome if the right framework conditions are created now," emphasized Hofmann.

He believes that politicians and companies have a responsibility here. "Politicians and companies must now develop strategies to shape this transformation. Politicians must flank the necessary structural change in the automotive industry with targeted industrial and employment policies, while companies must ensure that employees are not left behind in this transformation, above all with a massive qualification offensive."

Hofmann called on politicians and employers to come up with robust concepts and proposals now. "We must use the coming years to initiate these necessary adjustment processes - but the course is being set today."

Measured against the total number of people in employment in Germany of more than 44 million, this potential job loss is small, said Professor Dr. Oliver Riedel, Institute Director at the Fraunhofer IAO. "But depending on the company and region, the consequences can be considerable. For example, if smaller companies are unable to compensate for lost sales of components for combustion engines or if there are hardly any employment alternatives in structurally weak regions."