Mechanical engineering
VDMA increases production forecast
In May, incoming orders in the plant and mechanical engineering sector significantly exceeded the previous year's level by 17% in real terms. The good start to the year and forecasts for the near future prompted the VDMA to raise its forecast for the year.
The VDMA association is raising its annual forecast for real machine production in Germany from the previous plus 1% (as of October 2016) to plus 3%.
According to the VDMA economists, there are three main reasons for revising the forecast: Firstly, incoming orders, particularly from the euro partner countries, have risen much more strongly than expected in the first five months of the year. Secondly, there are justified hopes that domestic business will pick up more strongly than previously forecast. "Customers in the manufacturing industry remain optimistic, capacities are well utilized and there is pent-up demand for investment and modernization," explains Wiechers. Thirdly, business with Asia - especially in China - is developing much better than expected. In the first four months of the current year, machinery exports from Germany to China increased by 15%.
In view of current developments in key customer countries - particularly the USA and the UK - the mechanical engineering association nevertheless still sees risks on the way to growth of 3%. "The environment in which we are operating remains fragile," warns VDMA Chief Economist Dr. Ralph Wiechers.
Double-digit growth in orders in May
According to the VDMA, orders from abroad rose by 23% in real terms in May compared to the previous year. Orders from euro partner countries continued the positive trend of recent months with an increase of 34%. Demand from non-euro countries (plus 20%) grew at a double-digit rate for the first time this year. Domestic orders also grew by a pleasing 5% in May.
In a three-month comparison from March to May, incoming orders in the German mechanical engineering sector increased by 4% in real terms compared to the previous year. Orders from abroad increased by 4%, with the euro partner countries recording a plus of 23%, while the non-euro countries recorded a minus of 1%. A plus of 2% was achieved in Germany.
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