Darmstadt/New York (dpa) - Solar storms can create fascinating light shows in the sky as auroras, but they can also cause a state of emergency. They are not a danger to the Earth as a planet, but they are for people in an increasingly high-tech world. During a solar storm, high-energy particles and a massive plasma cloud race towards the planets from the center of the solar system and can massively disrupt the infrastructure on and around the Earth. The US aerospace company SpaceX recently experienced the painful consequences of space weather when it lost around 40 of its satellites as a result of a solar storm.

Solar storms are caused by eruptions on the star. They are likely to become more frequent again in the coming years: since the end of 2019, the sun's activity has been increasing again in its approximately eleven-year cycle, with the maximum expected between 2024 and 2026. And the violent bursts of particles and radiation in phases of high activity could have ever greater consequences on Earth as technology increases.

Massive damage caused by solar storms

According to the European Space Agency Esa, high-energy particles and plasma amounting to billions of tons are hurled into space during a solar storm, which can travel towards the Earth, 150 million kilometers away, within a short space of time. The Earth is actually protected by its magnetic field and atmosphere, but such storms can still cause massive damage. Satellites can be destroyed, power grids or communication and navigation systems can collapse.

"It is possible for a very extreme solar storm to occur at any time and this can have far-reaching consequences," says Melanie Heil, coordinator of the space weather mission at the Esa site in Darmstadt. The European astronauts control their observations of solar storms from the site with the satellite control center. It is not "super likely" that all satellites will break down, but some could be affected.

To protect the power grids on Earth, you need a warning time. If capacities in generators and transformers could be reduced, this could possibly be enough to protect them from damage. However, a once-in-a-century event is very difficult to predict. "The latest calculations say that we can expect an extreme space weather event in the next ten years with a probability of around ten percent."

The warning time is only short because the solar particles move through the vastness of the solar system at breakneck speed. "If we weren't able to observe something like this, we would be vulnerable at any time," says Heil. There are already certain observation points that provide data. However, the capacities for more reliable predictions are still being expanded.

With the 'Vigil' probe, Esa is hoping for a much better view of solar storms. "Due to its location in space, the Vigil mission will be able to take a sharp look at potentially dangerous solar activity," explained the head of this Esa mission, Giuseppe Mandorlo, recently. According to Heil, the mission is due to start in 2027 and, unlike previous observation options, will be able to look sideways at the sun and track the storms.

Esa surprised by damage to Musk satellites

The extent of the damage to billionaire Elon Musk's private space company took Esa by surprise. "It wasn't actually a particularly strong solar storm, which is why no official warning was sent out," says Heil. The SpaceX satellites were in the wrong place at the wrong time. The storm had caused the atmosphere to become so dense that the orbiters, at an altitude of 200 km, were unable to reach their destination, which was actually 300 km higher, under their own power and will now burn up.

SpaceX wants to use the Starlink system to establish fast internet connections directly via its own satellites. SpaceX is doing "good work" with Starlink, according to the US space agency Nasa. Both NASA and the US weather agency NOAA are currently working with SpaceX to further improve Starlink operations. Nasa is also working on gaining an even better understanding of weather events in space.

It is not yet clear how severe the solar cycle that has begun will ultimately be. In 2020, experts from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (SCPP) assumed a rather dull maximum similar to the previous cycle. However, a team led by Scott McIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder disagreed with this forecast; the researchers believe that a strong maximum with many solar storms is more likely. Which prediction is correct remains to be seen.