PwC study
Working from home lowers gross domestic product
According to estimates by PwC, working from home could reduce Germany's gross domestic product by several billion. Gastronomy, retail and local transport in particular would suffer losses.
The home office effect could reduce the German gross domestic product by 15 billion euros this year, according to estimates by management consultants PwC. The reduced spending by office workers would hit the hospitality industry, stationary retail and local public transport particularly hard, explained the PwC financial experts in Munich.
Around 30% of employees in Germany currently work at home instead of in the office. They would spend less money on commuting to work, lunch in a restaurant, shopping in the office district or on the way to work and on entertainment. The industries directly affected would lose 5.7 billion euros in turnover as a result.
There would also be indirect effects such as lower energy consumption in restaurants. This would lead to an economic decline of 4.1 billion euros. The reduced purchasing power of employees in the affected sectors would have an impact of 5.1 billion euros. According to the PwC analysis "Economic impact of Covid-19 induced home office", the result is an expected decline in gross domestic product of 14.9 billion euros or 0.3%.
The gross value added of passenger transportation, tourism, travel providers, hotels and restaurants fell by a third in 2020 and is unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels by 2022. Gross value added in bricks-and-mortar retail is expected to increase by 4% this year following a decline of 8.6% in the previous year. "The picture is similar in the entertainment industry," wrote the PwC analysts.
Flexible working models are likely to dominate in the future. "It can be assumed that many companies will rely on hybrid solutions with a view to knowledge transfer and workforce cohesion. This means that even sectors dependent on office-based operations can hope for a recovery in turnover in the medium term," said PwC project manager Thorben Wegner.
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