Companies are worried about trade barriers if Trump wins

The outcome of the election in the USA could complicate the global economic environment, which would put a strain on international trade relations, according to DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier. A particular risk for German companies are the tariff plans repeatedly discussed during the election campaign, he said with a view to the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and the election on Tuesday. "The prospect of a tougher trade policy, especially under a possible Trump administration, could further exacerbate concerns about supply chain disruptions and trade barriers."

Fear of consequences for key German industries

The Director of the German Economic Institute, Michael Hüther, also warns of Trump's announcements to introduce import tariffs and the costs of a trade war with the USA: "For the export-oriented German economy, which is already in a profound structural crisis, this would be an expensive disaster." The USA has recently been Germany's most important export partner. "Mechanical engineers, car manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies are particularly dependent on trade with the United States," explained Hüther.

Bundesbank President worried

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned against punitive tariffs ahead of the US elections. "Are tariffs a good way to limit the disadvantages of globalization from a country's perspective and to profit as much as possible from the advantages of trade? Basically no, with tariff increases we make consumption more expensive and fuel inflation," Nagel said at an event in Hamburg, according to the text of his speech. "That makes us all poorer."

On the eve of an important election, it did not seem entirely inappropriate for him to focus on the willingness to approach each other openly, said Nagel. Trump has announced a tariff of 60 percent on US imports from China and 20 percent on imports from the rest of the world. This would make German products considerably more expensive in the USA.

Overall, German companies continue to expect stable business, according to the DIHK, citing a special evaluation on the USA as part of a survey of member companies of the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad. According to the survey, 38 percent expect the local economy to improve over the next 12 months. According to Treier, German companies in the automotive, mechanical engineering and renewable energy sectors in particular are benefiting from the continued high level of innovation and sustained demand on the US market.