A first look at the economic figures for the first quarter of 2024 reveals nothing but minus: In March, orders fell by 17% in real terms compared to the previous year. "March 2023 saw by far the highest order volume of the entire past year," explains VDMA economic expert Olaf Wortmann. "It therefore comes as no surprise that the decline in orders was greater in this month than in the first two months of this year."

A second look shows a glimmer of light: Behind the supposedly sharp decline in foreign orders in March of 15% in real terms (euro countries: -17%; non-euro countries: -14%), a closer analysis of the figures reveals another development. "If you look at the monthly figures along the curve, our assessment that foreign orders have bottomed out is confirmed," explains Wortmann. And there is also a cautiously positive outlook behind the 23% drop in domestic orders in March, he adds: "There are also signs of a sideways movement at the current low level."

Too early to breathe a sigh of relief

Nevertheless, VDMA economists warn against premature euphoria: "It is true that the mood of many industrial customers has improved, especially outside Europe. But it will be some time before this is reflected in a sustained increase in orders, production and sales for the mechanical and plant engineering sector. Especially as global conflict and protectionism are still weighing too heavily on the global economy and preventing a real turnaround in investment plans," says Wortmann.

In the first quarter of 2024 (January to March inclusive), companies in the mechanical and plant engineering sector recorded a drop in incoming orders of 13% in real terms compared to the previous year. Domestic business (-16%) recorded higher declines than foreign orders (-12%). The euro countries ordered 18% fewer machines and systems in this period, while non-euro countries reduced their orders by 10%.