Despite problems with supply chains, the German Foreign Trade Association (BGA) continues to expect strong export growth of 13% this year. "We are sticking to our forecast for the year as a whole, even though there are numerous uncertainties," said Anton Börner, President of the German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services Association (BGA), in an interview with the German Press Agency. Export companies' business is being impacted above all by a lack of container capacity, port closures in China following the coronavirus outbreak and entry bans to the USA due to the pandemic.

"Persistent major supply chain problems are dampening the economic recovery: a lack of goods, rapidly rising container prices and a lack of reliability are currently determining everyday business life and are an immense challenge," said Börner. The global economic recovery is also making it very difficult to obtain free container capacity at the moment.

"Time and again, ship crews have to go into quarantine due to coronavirus outbreaks," reported Börner. Progress with vaccinations against the virus is therefore very important in his view. "I can only appeal again and again: vaccinate, vaccinate."

Is Europe caught between China and the USA?

In the first half of the year, exports of goods "Made in Germany" rose by 16.7% to 673.1 billion euros compared to the first six months of 2020. Last year, the coronavirus crisis tore deep holes in the German export balance.

The BGA President is concerned about growing tensions between the world's largest economies, the USA and China. "The German economy has to navigate between the two poles," said Börner. "I'm very worried that Europe will get caught between the US and China millstones."

Börner sees increasing autocratic tendencies worldwide, not only in China, but also in Europe. "We must not close our eyes to this. The European Union must be able to implement power politics," demanded Börner. "If it fails to do so, it will strengthen China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping or Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Ultimately, the Americans will no longer take us seriously either," said the BGA President. In his own words, he hopes that the fear of the "human catastrophe" of climate change will bring the USA and China back to the negotiating table. "We need a rules-based cooperation."

DIHK: Supply bottlenecks slow down upswing

Whether steel, plastics or semiconductors: such raw materials and preliminary products are difficult for German companies to obtain. According to a survey by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), 83% of companies are experiencing supply bottlenecks and price increases. "These supply chain problems have piled up this year," said DIHK foreign trade expert Volker Treier on Thursday. Global trade relations have been massively disrupted and companies are being hit hard. "The economic upturn is being slowed down," Treier warned.

The bottlenecks are occurring because there is a lack of production and transport capacity to meet growing demand. Containers, for example, are still in short supply. Because fewer people are flying, there are also fewer opportunities to transport goods in the cargo hold of passenger planes. At the same time, coronavirus restrictions are leading to production losses.

The problems are making economic recovery more difficult, it was said. If things go well, the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by mid-2022.

Steel, certain primary products such as microchips, plastics, wood, aluminum and copper, as well as packaging, are in particularly short supply. For two thirds of the companies affected, this will also lead to higher prices for customers.